Despite an uptick in scoring compared to recent campaigns, Premier League teams are leaving a surprising number of goals on the table so far this season, according to underlying data from the opening weeks.
Clubs are averaging 2.70 non-penalty goals per match in 2026-27, an improvement on last term and higher than two of the previous four seasons. However, the quality of chances created suggests this figure should be even greater. Matches have produced an average of 2.88 non-penalty expected goals (xG) per game, the second-highest mark across the last six seasons. Had finishing matched the underlying numbers, the division would have seen almost two additional goals every week.
That shortfall appears to be contributing to an unusually high rate of drawn matches, with this season's proportion of stalemates higher than in any previous Premier League campaign. Several of those deadlocks might have been broken with sharper finishing in front of goal.
The problem is widespread rather than isolated to a handful of struggling sides. Fourteen of the 20 clubs have scored fewer goals than their expected numbers suggest they should have, up from ten last season. While eight teams remain close enough to their underlying figures that a correction could arrive soon, the rest are skewed heavily toward underachievement, with 12 clubs split 8-4 in favor of teams scoring below expectation.
This isn't merely a case of one or two bad afternoons. In the first five match weeks alone, there were 24 instances of a team finishing at least one full goal below their expected tally — double the rate from the same period last season.
Interestingly, the data suggests this isn't down to a decline in chance quality or fewer opportunities. The average expected goal value per shot has barely moved, and touches in the opposition penalty area are down only marginally, from 25.4 to 24.8 per game league-wide.
A closer look at individual clubs reveals more nuance. Four of last season's top five teams for box touches have seen that number decline this year, with Aston Villa and Liverpool both down by roughly a third. Manchester United are the exception, though their increase comes with caveats — the Red Devils have faced just one side that finished in the top ten last season, and five of their eight goals came against Championship runners-up Ipswich Town. They currently lead the league for non-penalty shot volume but rank near the bottom for average expected goal value per attempt, pointing to a reliance on quantity over quality.
Part of the explanation may lie in how concentrated goalscoring threat has become at individual clubs. At nearly every Premier League team, the player with the highest share of non-penalty expected goals is carrying a larger proportion of their side's chances than they did last season. Collectively, these lead attackers have underperformed their expected goals by 6.8 non-penalty goals, accounting for almost 40% of the division's overall shortfall — from just 20 players.
Some cases stand out. Everton's Thierno Barry has gone from generating 17.7% of his side's non-penalty xG last season to 49.4% this term, scoring twice from chances worth 3.5 xG. At Liverpool, Alexander Isak has seen his share of the team's expected goals rise sharply despite limited Premier League minutes to date. Manchester United's Bryan Mbeumo, who underperformed his xG by 1.19 last season, remains the focal point of United's attack. Elsewhere, Newcastle's Yoane Wissa and Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier both underperformed by more than two goals last campaign, while Tottenham's top expected-goals contributor is currently centre-back Jan Paul van Hecke.
Whether this trend corrects itself as playing time becomes more evenly distributed across squads remains to be seen. For now, though, the gap between goals and expected goals suggests fans should not expect scoring figures to catch up with the underlying numbers anytime soon.
Based on reporting from The Guardian.