Football clubs have long looked to head-to-head records when sizing up upcoming fixtures, but with managerial turnover in the Premier League reaching unprecedented levels, that traditional method of prediction may no longer hold much value.
Analysis shows that 22 of the last 50 permanent Premier League managers to depart their positions lasted less than a full year in charge, meaning new appointees now face nearly a 50-50 chance of losing their job before a season concludes. Betting markets appear to echo this instability: six of the eight managers currently considered most likely to be the next dismissed took charge of their clubs in 2026.
Last season alone offered a stark illustration of this volatility. Vítor Pereira, Graham Potter and Thomas Frank all took over their respective clubs—Wolves, West Ham and Tottenham—at the start of the campaign, only to be sacked by mid-February. Looking back over the past decade, 25 managers who began a season newly appointed failed to see it through to the end.
This churn makes Saturday's meeting between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest at Anfield a fitting example of how unpredictable fixtures have become. Forest have won their last two visits to Anfield, including a September 2024 victory that remains notable as Liverpool's only Premier League defeat in their first 30 games of a title-winning season—a result Arne Slot referenced repeatedly in interviews afterward. Yet the managerial landscape has shifted dramatically since then. Nuno Espírito Santo oversaw the first of those Forest wins, Sean Dyche the second, and the club has already cycled through two more managers since Dyche's exit, reflecting owner Evangelos Marinakis's well-known impatience with head coaches.
Current Forest boss Oliver Glasner presents an intriguing case. Despite being among the favorites to be the next Premier League manager sacked, he boasts an excellent record against Liverpool, having won four of seven meetings across all competitions, including a Community Shield penalty shootout victory. His success against other established powers is far more limited—just two wins in nine matches against Manchester United, one against Manchester City, and none against Arsenal or Chelsea.
However, Glasner's fortunes shift considerably against Liverpool's new head coach, Andoni Iraola. In five previous meetings when the pair managed Crystal Palace and Bournemouth respectively, Iraola came out ahead with two wins and three draws, keeping four clean sheets. Liverpool themselves showed signs of struggle in their recent 2-2 draw at Newcastle, suggesting Iraola still has plenty of work ahead in his first season at the helm.
Glasner's most frequent managerial rival, however, is Bournemouth's Marco Rose, with the two having faced off 16 times—more than any other pairing among current Premier League managers. Rose holds a commanding 9-2 advantage in that head-to-head, though the two have yet to meet on English soil; that will change in mid-November when Forest travel to the Vitality Stadium.
The broader statistics underline just how much the managerial landscape has been reshuffled. Of the 190 possible combinations between current Premier League managers, only 97 have previously met. Remarkably, 110 matches this season—nearly 29 percent of the total—will feature two managers both appointed in 2026. Liverpool's schedule is particularly affected, facing newly appointed managers in six of their opening six fixtures and seven of their final ten. Whether all of those opponents remain in their posts by season's end is very much an open question.
Based on reporting from Guardian Football.