The fallout from Manchester City's guilty verdict on charges of financial rule-breaking has sparked a wider reckoning across English football, with analysis suggesting dozens of clubs may have suffered financial harm as a result of the champions' inflated spending power between 2009 and 2018.
City were found to have disguised £830m in sponsorship income and a further £90m in expenses, according to an independent Premier League commission. The club deny wrongdoing and have lodged an appeal, but the findings as they stand paint a picture of a club whose dominance over nearly a decade was built on financial irregularities.
Before Sheikh Mansour's takeover in 2008, City had not finished higher than eighth in the Premier League era. Within two seasons of the Abu Dhabi investment arriving, City were fifth, and since 2009-10 they have never finished outside the top four. In that period they secured three league titles, an FA Cup and three League Cups.
An assessment of prize money, relegation costs, and missed European qualification suggests the collective financial damage to rival clubs could total around £844m. That figure breaks down into £188.2m in lost Premier League placing money, £349.7m tied to relegations, £217.8m in forfeited Champions League earnings, and £88.3m connected to domestic cups and the Europa League. By contrast, City themselves earned an estimated £1.17bn across competitions during the period in question, including more than £812m from the Premier League and over £363m from the Champions League.
Tottenham Hotspur emerge as the club most affected, with an estimated net loss of £119.9m. Spurs missed out on Champions League qualification by a single place in several seasons when City occupied a qualifying spot, most notably in 2014-15, when the gap between City's Champions League revenue and Tottenham's Europa League income reached £53.5m. Former Spurs manager Mauricio Pochettino commented last month, saying: "We have lived through a period of deception. No type of punishment will make it possible to repair what was done."
Hull City rank second in terms of financial impact, at roughly £99m, having been relegated twice during the period while also finishing below City in the table on four occasions. Everton are estimated to have lost around £66.4m, having narrowly missed Champions League qualification once and fallen just short of Europa League spots on four other occasions.
Liverpool's cup final defeat to City on penalties in the 2016 League Cup is also highlighted as a turning point, since the Europa League berth that would have followed a win instead went to West Ham. Using Manchester United's Europa League-winning revenue in 2016-17 as a comparative benchmark, the analysis estimates Liverpool's combined losses from that result and league placing money at £52.3m.
Other clubs relegated from 18th place during the period, including Swansea City, Newcastle United, Norwich City, Wigan Athletic, Burnley, Bolton Wanderers and Birmingham City, are all calculated to have suffered losses ranging from roughly £25m to £63m. Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton were also found to have missed Champions League qualification by a single position in seasons when City claimed the relevant spot, with Chelsea's estimated shortfall the largest of the three at £39.8m.
The figures are not intended as a basis for compensation claims, nor do they assert that any club would definitely have avoided relegation or achieved Champions League qualification without City's presence. Rather, they illustrate how differently the Premier League table might have looked had Manchester City's spending been constrained to legitimate levels during those nine seasons.
Based on reporting from BBC Sport.