Enzo Maresca is navigating a version of Manchester City unlike anything Pep Guardiola presided over, with data revealing an unprecedented level of squad turnover just as the club heads into a crucial derby against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
While City remain unbeaten in the Premier League so far this season, cracks have started to show. Their recent home win over newly promoted Coventry City was widely expected to be routine, especially after more than 91% of Fantasy Premier League managers triple-captained Erling Haaland in anticipation of a goal rush. Haaland did score the only goal of the game, but Coventry made things uncomfortable, managing 12 shots and accumulating 1.37 expected goals according to Opta — figures that suggest they deserved more from the contest.
To put that into context, visiting teams to the Etihad Stadium had only reached 12 shots on 17 occasions during Guardiola's entire decade in charge, and none of those visitors were teams freshly promoted from the Championship.
The explanation lies in the scale of change within City's ranks. Using a measure of Premier League minutes played, statistics show that 37.2% of the club's game-time last season needs replacing this campaign — meaning over a third of last year's contributors have since departed or fallen out of the picture. By comparison, Guardiola's teams averaged just 14.5% turnover across his 10 seasons in charge, and on four occasions that figure was below 7.5%. There was a lengthy stretch in the middle of his reign where almost every key contributor from one season returned the next, though the shift toward greater turnover had already begun during his final year.
Among those who departed since the end of last season are two players central to City's recent successes — Bernardo Silva and Rodri — plus Nico González and Tijjani Reijnders, the latter enjoying a productive spell before making an unexpectedly quick move to the Saudi Pro League. Omar Marmoush and Sávio, who combined for 50 league starts between them, have both since joined Tottenham Hotspur. City's financial resources shield them from the direct cost of transfer business that hasn't worked out, but questions remain about the club's recent recruitment strategy.
Not every departure has hurt City so far. Marc Guéhi and Antoine Semenyo, both incoming for only half of last season, have quickly slotted into the starting lineup. Jérémy Doku, an important player from the previous campaign, has yet to feature in the league this season because of injury — once he returns, City's retention numbers should improve slightly, though still not reach the Premier League's average turnover rate of 31.9%.
Against Coventry, City's starting XI featured plenty of recognizable faces, but many had built their reputations elsewhere rather than at the club. Rayan Cherki, only a season into his City career, was the fifth-longest-serving player in the side. Just one of the five players occupying the key defensive positions — goalkeeper, centre-back, or holding midfield — had been at the club before this season began, a situation compounded when Nico O'Reilly was forced off injured in the warm-up, requiring Enzo Fernández to step in.
Only Aston Villa, Tottenham, Newcastle and Brighton have experienced higher turnover than City this season, and none of those clubs are expected to compete for the title or Champions League places, unlike City. Arsenal, in contrast, have preserved a more settled squad as they push for major honours.
With City sitting fifth in the table, the derby against a United side that has retained more of its squad than average represents an early test of how Maresca balances rotation with reliability. Phil Foden, who has a stronger scoring record against United than against most opponents, and the returning O'Reilly could see Maresca lean more heavily on established faces than he did against Coventry, given the stakes of a derby fixture compared to facing a promoted side.
Based on reporting from Guardian Football.