A decade ago, Chelsea finished a disappointing 10th in the Premier League, only to lift the trophy the following season under Antonio Conte. Now, having finished 10th again last term and appointed a new head coach in Xabi Alonso, questions are being asked about whether history could repeat itself at Stamford Bridge.
The parallels between the two campaigns are striking. Chelsea's underlying numbers from 2025-26 are almost identical to their 2015-16 season under interim boss Guus Hiddink, with the club finishing on the same goal difference and just two points better off. Back then, few expected the Blues, who trailed champions Leicester by 31 points and finished below sides like Southampton, West Ham and Stoke, to be crowned champions just twelve months later.
That turnaround began with a tactical shift. After a 3-0 defeat at Arsenal early in the 2016-17 season, Conte switched to a back three, sparking a 13-game winning streak that effectively sealed the title. Interestingly, Alonso has already shown a fondness for that same system, having guided Bayer Leverkusen to an unbeaten Bundesliga title in 2023-24 playing three at the back.
However, replicating Chelsea's 43-point improvement from that campaign would be an extraordinary achievement, the largest points swing by a Premier League title winner in history, surpassing even Leicester's 40-point jump the previous season. Fortunately for Chelsea, the requirements for winning the league appear to have eased somewhat in recent years. Arsenal's title-winning tally last season was the second-lowest in a decade, a far cry from the 97-point marks needed during the peak Manchester City–Liverpool rivalry.
Statistically, Chelsea's struggles last season may have masked genuine quality within the squad. Advanced metrics suggest they were the fourth-most dominant team in the league based on expected goals, though they slip to fifth when penalties are excluded. Their major issue was finishing: they scored eight fewer goals than their chances warranted, netting just 58 from an expected total of 66.3, a shortfall bettered only by Crystal Palace and Wolves.
Much of that inefficiency came during a bizarre five-game stretch under Liam Rosenior in March and April, when Chelsea failed to score in five straight league defeats, a first for the club in 114 years, a slump that ultimately cost Rosenior his job. Whether that run reflected poor fortune, a broader tactical issue, or something else entirely remains unclear, but such an extreme dip in finishing is unlikely to recur.
Another factor working in Chelsea's favor is the absence of European competition this season. History suggests this can be a hidden blessing: since 2010-11, when the Premier League's so-called 'Big Six' first monopolized the top six places, clubs from that group who had no European fixtures typically improved their league position by five spots and gained 16 points on average the following campaign. Conte's Chelsea capitalized fully on that advantage in 2016-17, while Liverpool came close to a similar feat in 2013-14, missing out by just two points. Manchester United also benefited last season, climbing to third with 29 more points than the year before.
Perhaps the most compelling reason for optimism, though, is Alonso's own track record. After inheriting a Leverkusen side in the relegation zone in 2022, he steered them to sixth place with 50 points, the same tally Chelsea managed last season, before orchestrating a stunning 40-point improvement the following year to win an unbeaten Bundesliga title.
Only Leicester and Chelsea have ever finished outside the top three one season and won the title the next in Premier League history. Matching that would be remarkable, but given Chelsea's underlying quality, the tactical benefits of a single competition focus, and Alonso's proven capacity for rapid transformation, it is far from unthinkable.
Based on reporting from BBC Sport.