Sunderland's return to the Premier League after eight years away produced one of the standout stories of the 2025-26 season. Promoted through the Championship play-offs in May 2025, the Black Cats confounded expectations by finishing seventh, securing European qualification for the first time since 1973. Yet as the new campaign approaches, bookmakers again list Regis le Bris' side among the favourites for relegation, alongside newly promoted Hull City, Coventry and Ipswich.
Three factors underpin that scepticism: underwhelming underlying statistics from last season, the so-called "second-season syndrome" that has haunted several promoted clubs, and the extra burden of a European campaign for the first time in over half a century.
Statistically, Sunderland's numbers last term painted a less flattering picture than their final league position suggested. Expected goals (xG) data, which measures the quality of chances created and conceded, ranked only relegated Burnley and Wolves worse than Sunderland in terms of xG difference. Only Manchester City and Aston Villa outperformed their own xG numbers by a greater margin than the Black Cats, who scored three more goals and conceded six fewer than their underlying figures predicted. Historically, most teams' final standings align closely with their xG performance, making Sunderland and Villa notable exceptions last season rather than the norm.
A significant factor behind Sunderland's dip in underlying form was the Africa Cup of Nations, which cost them six players during December and January — double the absentees of any other club. Their performances, already trending downward from a strong start, suffered further during that stretch. However, once the squad reunited, Sunderland's underlying metrics steadily improved, and they finished the campaign performing like a genuine mid-table outfit. With no Afcon disruption this season, that particular obstacle should not recur.
The concept of "second-season syndrome" — where sides that survive their first Premier League campaign are relegated in their second — is often cited but statistically less common than perceived. Of the 52 promoted teams prior to Sunderland and Leeds last season, only 11 (21%) were relegated the following year. Still, there is a cautionary precedent: George Burley's Ipswich side, the best promoted team of the 38-game era, finished fifth with 66 points in 2000-01 before crashing to relegation the next season while juggling European fixtures. Sunderland themselves, coincidentally, benefited by finishing just above Ipswich that year. Among the 20 promoted teams to finish in the top half in their debut season, four (20%) were relegated the following campaign, most recently Sheffield United five years ago. Sunderland's own history offers a more encouraging parallel — under Peter Reid, they followed a seventh-placed finish in 1999-2000 with another seventh-placed finish the following year.
Europe adds a further variable. Sunderland become the tenth promoted club in Premier League history to qualify for continental competition, and only the fifth to do so purely through league position. History is fairly kind here too: five of the previous nine such teams achieved another top-half finish, with only Ipswich and Hull City suffering relegation. Hull's case was unusual, as they qualified via the FA Cup final but were eliminated from Europe early and later relegated. Sunderland will hope to emulate Wolves, the most recent promoted side to reach Europe, who played 17 games en route to the 2019-20 Europa League quarter-finals yet still finished seventh domestically.
While the challenges are real, Sunderland's meticulous rebuild from League One to the Premier League and now into Europe has instilled confidence among supporters that the club can once again defy expectations.
Based on reporting from BBC Sport.