Harry Kane enters this year's Ballon d'Or race as the bookmakers' favourite following a remarkable season for both club and country, but football history suggests that goals alone rarely secure the sport's most prestigious individual honour.
With the shortlist for the award set to be revealed on Tuesday, Kane's case rests on staggering output: 73 goals in all competitions, 61 for Bayern Munich and 12 for England, as the Bavarians won the Bundesliga and DFB-Pokal while the Three Lions reached the World Cup semi-finals before finishing third. Among players from Europe's top five leagues, only Lionel Messi has bettered that tally in a single campaign, netting 82 times for Barcelona and Argentina in 2011-12. Kane's numbers surpass those of Bayern legend Gerd Muller, Cristiano Ronaldo, Ronaldo Nazario, Erling Haaland and Luis Suarez in their respective standout seasons.
Despite this, precedent is not on Kane's side. The Ballon d'Or, first awarded in 1956 to Sir Stanley Matthews, has historically leaned heavily toward players who triumph in football's marquee competitions. A France Football retrospective marking the award's 60th anniversary concluded that several World Cup winners — including Pele, Garrincha, Diego Maradona and Romario — would have claimed the prize in years when it was restricted to European players. Since eligibility opened to all nationalities in 1995, only four of the last 19 winners lifted the trophy without also winning the World Cup, European Championship, Copa America or Champions League that same year.
Those exceptions were largely reserved for two of the game's greatest-ever players. Messi won without international silverware in 2010, 2012 and 2019, while Ronaldo triumphed in 2013 despite Portugal's failure to reach the World Cup finals via the play-offs. Other standout individual campaigns — such as Wesley Sneijder's treble-winning 2010, Franck Ribery's role in Bayern's 2013 treble, and Mohamed Salah's prolific 2017-18 season — were not enough to sway voters.
Kane faces a similar hurdle. Unlike previous winners such as Ronaldo in 2014 or Luka Modric in 2018, he cannot point to Champions League success, with Bayern eliminated in the semi-finals by eventual champions Paris Saint-Germain. He also faces stiff competition from a crowded field including Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham.
The sharpest threat may come from Spain's Rodri, who was widely regarded as his country's outstanding performer en route to winning the World Cup, earning the tournament's Golden Ball. Teenage sensation Lamine Yamal also added a World Cup winner's medal to a season in which Barcelona reclaimed the La Liga title, though it was his young club colleague Pau Cubarsi who took home the FIFA Young Player Award.
Mbappe presents another compelling case after finishing the World Cup as top scorer with 10 goals, in addition to winning the Champions League Golden Boot and topping the La Liga scoring charts — despite France falling short of the final and Real Madrid ending the campaign without silverware. Messi, now 39, also remains in contention after captaining Argentina to a second consecutive World Cup final and scoring eight goals during the tournament.
Should Kane defy the odds, he would become just the fifth Englishman to win the Ballon d'Or, joining Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen. He would also be the first Bundesliga-based winner since Matthias Sammer in 1996.
History suggests the path remains steep, but rarely has a candidate arrived with such extraordinary individual numbers. Voters must now weigh one of the most prolific scoring seasons in modern football against the sport's biggest team honours.
Based on reporting from BBC Sport.