Manchester United's Premier League campaign began with an unexpected setback as Hull City claimed a 2-0 victory, exploiting United's defensive frailties at set plays while also exposing a more troubling issue in the visitors' attacking play.
Hull, who managed just nine league goals from set plays last season—the joint-lowest tally in the Championship—needed only 21 minutes to find twice against United, with Oli McBurnie causing persistent problems as the focal point of Hull's set-piece routines. United's defending from these situations was porous, and it proved decisive.
Given the disparity in resources between the two clubs, United entered the match as heavy favourites, with pre-match data giving them nearly a 69 percent chance of victory. Manager Michael Carrick had cautioned beforehand that the game would not be straightforward, though the manner of the defeat likely exceeded his worst fears.
While the defensive lapses at set pieces drew immediate attention, statistical analysis suggests United's attacking limitations represent the more significant long-term concern. Raw expected goals figures might suggest United were unfortunate, having generated 1.83 expected goals compared to Hull's 1.01. However, the composition of those chances tells a different story. United managed 21 shots in total, but 16 of them were valued at less than 0.1 expected goals each—indicating a stream of low-quality efforts rather than clear-cut opportunities.
This pattern echoes struggles from last season, when United's open-play shots averaged just 0.104 expected goals each—the third-worst rate among Premier League clubs finishing in the top half. Against Hull, that figure dropped even further, to 0.087.
It wasn't until the 78th minute that United created a genuinely promising chance for one of their more incisive attackers, when Matheus Cunha threaded a pass through to Bryan Mbeumo. Prior to that moment, the best opportunities had fallen to Patrick Dorgu and Noussair Mazraoui—neither renowned as a natural finisher, with the pair having scored just 16 Premier League goals between them. Dorgu, deployed in an advanced midfield role within United's 4-2-3-1 setup despite his background as a winger, struggled to convert his chances, while Marcus Rashford—viewed as a superior long-term option in that position—may have contributed to United's better moments in the first half through his attacking instincts.
Hull's approach under manager Sergej Jakirovic proved effective in stifling United's threat. The Croatian coach set his side up with a back five, a system he used on ten occasions last season, including in crucial playoff victories over Millwall and Middlesbrough. Against United, the extra defensive bodies successfully congested central areas. Data showed Hull conceded eight shots in the most dangerous central zone of the penalty area, but five of these were headers—generally more difficult to convert than shots from open play.
The result continues a troubling pattern for United against teams employing back-three or back-five formations. They have now won just one of their last six league matches against such opposition, having previously lost to Leeds United's 3-4-3 setup last April and drawn with the same system in a pre-season friendly, before also suffering defeat against Milan's similar shape in their final warm-up fixture.
Despite the disappointing result, Carrick sought to maintain perspective. "We got beat, we're hurt and it's not a nice feeling. It doesn't mean it's going to change the whole direction of how we're going as a team or as a football club," he said.
While Carrick's measured response reflects a sensible long-term outlook, the underlying numbers suggest United's attacking output requires urgent attention if similar results are to be avoided going forward.
Based on reporting from The Guardian.